IQ152a: poor jump index all

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: completed last time with a Jump Index in the bottom quarter of the field.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

6,445

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.7%

6,441 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ152a-poor-jump-index-all Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.014 on 6445 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ152a-poor-jump-index-all (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ152a-poor-jump-index-all: IQ152a: poor jump index all (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.