Hypotheses · limited-v-broad · IQ152b-poor-jump-index-limited

IQ152b: poor jump index limited

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.119 on 394 bets

Starts the thread “IQ152b: poor jump index limited” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Limited failure: Jump Index in the bottom quarter, none of ground gained, speed kept or recovery in its bad quarter.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25 AND ((l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) + (l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25) + (l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75)) = 0

Reads: race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_jump_index_pct, l_lgj_pct, l_speed_lost_pct, l_recovery_time_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25 AND ((l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) + (l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25) + (l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75)) = 0
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 394
A/E: 1.12; winners vs the prices
SP return: -27.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -11.4%; 394 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 13.5%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2851.19

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ152b-poor-jump-index-limited Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.119 on 394 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ152b-poor-jump-index-limited (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ152b-poor-jump-index-limited: IQ152b: poor jump index limited (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.