IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving

Mechanism and rationale

Chase: against its fields, both Jump Index and ground gained jumping were better in its latest chase than two or three chases back. The jumping comes right before the form does.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0

Reads: race_type, s_n3, s_jump_index_rel_trend3, s_lgj_rel_trend3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "novice chase",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0) AND (is_novice = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "four or fewer chases",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0) AND (prior_chase_runs <= 4)"
  },
  {
    "name": "did not win last time",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 > 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 > 0) AND (last_position > 1 OR last_position IS NULL)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info did not win last time · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,722

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.2%

1,717 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving Discovery → PROMISING import: best [four or fewer chases] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 626 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving (did not win last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving (four or fewer chases): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving (novice chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ18-chaser-whose-jumping-is-improving: IQ18: chaser whose jumping is improving (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.