IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip

Mechanism and rationale

Has averaged in the top 35% of its fields for ground gained jumping over its last two or three runs in today's code, and steps up two furlongs or more. More obstacles, more to gain.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_lgj_pct_avg3 >= 0.65 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 440

Reads: race_type, s_n3, s_lgj_pct_avg3, distance_yards, last_distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_lgj_pct_avg3 >= 0.65 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 440

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_lgj_pct_avg3 >= 0.65 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 440) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_lgj_pct_avg3 >= 0.65 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 440) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,358

A/E

0.94

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.0%

1,357 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ22-efficient-jumper-stepping-up-in-trip Discovery → PROMISING import: best [14/1 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.939 on 1358 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ22-efficient-jumper-stepping-up-in-trip (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ22-efficient-jumper-stepping-up-in-trip (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ22-efficient-jumper-stepping-up-in-trip (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea IQ22-efficient-jumper-stepping-up-in-trip: IQ22: efficient jumper stepping up in trip (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.