Hypotheses · control · IQ30-control-flat-last-run-paced
IQ30: control flat last run paced
control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.004 on 65979 bets
Starts the thread “IQ30: control flat last run paced” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: every Flat runner whose last run has furlong times. Should be 1.00.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND l_late_pct IS NOT NULL
Reads: race_type, l_late_pct
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND l_late_pct IS NOT NULL
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 65,979
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -23.3%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -1.1%
- 65,606 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ30-control-flat-last-run-paced Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.004 on 65979 bets
· importer
import result for IQ30-control-flat-last-run-paced (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ30-control-flat-last-run-paced: IQ30: control flat last run paced (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.