Hypotheses · jumping-under-pressure · IQ38-jumped-well-under-pressure-and-beaten

IQ38: jumped well under pressure and beaten

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2045 bets

Starts the thread “IQ38: jumped well under pressure and beaten” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: led or raced prominently, top quarter for speed into its obstacles, top quarter for ground gained, in the quicker half to recover, and beaten. It kept its jumping together in the hardest kind of race to do it in.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.5 AND (last_position > 1 OR last_position IS NULL)

Reads: race_type, last_run_style, l_entry_speed_pct, l_lgj_pct, l_recovery_time_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.5 AND (last_position > 1 OR last_position IS NULL)
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 2,045
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -20.4%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -5.3%; 2,044 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 18.0%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1,3951.01

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ38-jumped-well-under-pressure-and-beaten Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2045 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ38-jumped-well-under-pressure-and-beaten (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ38-jumped-well-under-pressure-and-beaten: IQ38: jumped well under pressure and beaten (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.