IQ40: fastest finisher with nothing in the remark

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: faster over the final third than at least nine in ten of the other finishers, did not win, and the remark says nothing of a strong finish. The finish was real and nobody wrote it down.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 0 AND l_late_pct >= 0.9 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_strong_finish, l_late_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_strong_finish = 0 AND l_late_pct >= 0.9 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,576

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.5%

4,558 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ40-fastest-finisher-with-nothing-in-the-remark Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 4576 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ40-fastest-finisher-with-nothing-in-the-remark (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ40-fastest-finisher-with-nothing-in-the-remark: IQ40: fastest finisher with nothing in the remark (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.