IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the remark says it travelled well last time, it was in the slowest quarter over the first third, and it was beaten. It looked full of running because it had done no work.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_travelled_well, l_early_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

225

A/E

0.90

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-5.7%

224 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early Discovery → KILLED import: best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.221 on 97 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ41-travelled-well-after-doing-nothing-early: IQ41: travelled well after doing nothing early (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.