IQ44: big move mid race then faded

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: made up three or more places through the middle third, then lost places and was in the slowest quarter over the final third. The move was made too soon and cost the finish; the form shows only a beaten horse.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 3 AND l_gained_final < 0 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_gained_mid, l_gained_final, l_late_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 3 AND l_gained_final < 0 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

692

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+4.1%

690 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ44-big-move-mid-race-then-faded Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 692 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ44-big-move-mid-race-then-faded (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ44-big-move-mid-race-then-faded: IQ44: big move mid race then faded (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.