IQ51: costly jumping in character

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the same last run from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the worse 40%. It is what the horse is.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4

Reads: race_type, l_same_code, l_lgj_pct, l_recovery_time_pct, last_position, s_lgj_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

805bfbcca0a48f92eee7be4cec22dd026ce893d27fe3b1b237d616a30a8a81bd

Frozen

13 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction

negative

Frozen in

research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout

Frozen on

2026-10-13

Id

IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character

Rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev <= 0.4

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,396

A/E

1.08

winners vs the prices

SP return

-34.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-13.1%

1,396 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

2,406

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

1.00

p = 0.51

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2098 finished

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2098 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 6 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

6. forward result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-1 took job 6 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 0.997 on 2406 (GB 1.043, IRE 0.801), p 0.5054 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

12. import result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (discovery year (reference)): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

13. import result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (Ireland): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

14. import result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (Britain): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

15. import result for IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

16. New idea IQ51-costly-jumping-in-character: IQ51: costly jumping in character (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.