Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ60a-pulled-up-has-figures-system, 14-1 or shorter

IQ60a: pulled up has figures system, 14 1 or shorter

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.324 on 481 bets

Starts the thread “IQ60a: pulled up has figures system, 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[system, 14-1 or shorter] CONTROL: the system's runners whose pulled-up run has jumping figures. Should match the system.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index IS NOT NULL

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, l_jump_index

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index IS NOT NULL
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 481
A/E: 1.32; winners vs the prices
SP return: +9.6%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +33.1%; 480 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.37

Strike rate 16.4%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half3351.26

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ60a-pulled-up-has-figures-system, 14-1 or shorter Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.324 on 481 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ60a-pulled-up-has-figures-system, 14-1 or shorter (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ60a-pulled-up-has-figures-system, 14-1 or shorter: IQ60a: pulled up has figures system, 14 1 or shorter (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.