Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ61b-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-all prices

IQ61b: pulled up jumped well then pulled up all prices

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.384 on 362 bets

Starts the thread “IQ61b: pulled up jumped well then pulled up all prices” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] Jump Index in the top quarter of pulled-up horses for where it stood in its field (57th percentile or better). It was jumping well, so jumping was not why it stopped.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 362
A/E: 1.38; winners vs the prices
SP return: -6.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +34.3%; 362 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.43

Strike rate 9.4%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2491.16

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ61b-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-all prices Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.384 on 362 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ61b-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-all prices (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ61b-pulled-up-jumped-well-then-pulled-up-all prices: IQ61b: pulled up jumped well then pulled up all prices (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.