Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ63a-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-system, 14-1 or shorter
IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter
best [broad] RED A/E 0.523 on 63 bets
Starts the thread “IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
[system, 14-1 or shorter] Jump Index half a point or more below the horse's own earlier average in this code, from a horse that had averaged in the better half of its fields. A good jumper having a bad day: the cleanest reason to forgive.
The rule
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, l_same_code, s_jump_index_prev, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_pct_prev
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 63
- A/E
- 0.52
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -47.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -35.5%
- 63 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 6.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ63a-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-system, 14-1 or shorter Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.523 on 63 bets
· importer
import result for IQ63a-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-system, 14-1 or shorter (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ63a-pulled-up-out-of-character-jumping-system, 14-1 or shorter: IQ63a: pulled up out of character jumping system, 14 1 or shorter (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.