Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ66b-pulled-up-taken-out-of-its-comfort-zone-all prices

IQ66b: pulled up taken out of its comfort zone all prices

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.092 on 103 bets

Starts the thread “IQ66b: pulled up taken out of its comfort zone all prices” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] Speed into its obstacles, against the field, was higher than in the horse's own earlier runs in this code. A patient horse hurried along.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_entry_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_entry_speed_rel > s_entry_speed_rel_prev

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_same_code, s_entry_speed_rel_prev, l_entry_speed_rel

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_entry_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_entry_speed_rel > s_entry_speed_rel_prev
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 103
A/E: 1.09; winners vs the prices
SP return: +1.9%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +61.3%; 103 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 5.8%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half720.98

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ66b-pulled-up-taken-out-of-its-comfort-zone-all prices Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.092 on 103 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ66b-pulled-up-taken-out-of-its-comfort-zone-all prices (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ66b-pulled-up-taken-out-of-its-comfort-zone-all prices: IQ66b: pulled up taken out of its comfort zone all prices (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.