Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ67a-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-system, 14-1 or shorter
IQ67a: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences system, 14 1 or shorter
best [broad] RED A/E 0.808 on 20 bets
Starts the thread “IQ67a: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences system, 14 1 or shorter” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
[system, 14-1 or shorter] Jump Index in the lower half of pulled-up horses for where it stood in its field, and today's chase is at a track with easy fences.
The rule
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.29 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND track_fences = 'easy'Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, sp_decimal, l_jump_index_pct, race_type, track_fences
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.29 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND track_fences = 'easy'
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 20
- A/E
- 0.81
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -51.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- –
- 19 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ67a-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-system, 14-1 or shorter Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.808 on 20 bets
· importer
import result for IQ67a-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-system, 14-1 or shorter (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ67a-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-system, 14-1 or shorter: IQ67a: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences system, 14 1 or shorter (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.