Hypotheses · pulled-up-overlay · IQ67b-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-all prices

IQ67b: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences all prices

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.262 on 57 bets

Starts the thread “IQ67b: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences all prices” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

[all prices] Jump Index in the lower half of pulled-up horses for where it stood in its field, and today's chase is at a track with easy fences.

The rule

last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.29 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND track_fences = 'easy'

Reads: last_pulled_up, last_run_style, l_jump_index_pct, race_type, track_fences

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.29 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND track_fences = 'easy'
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 57
A/E: 1.26; winners vs the prices
SP return: +18.6%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +87.6%; 54 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.31

Strike rate 7.0%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half37–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ67b-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-all prices Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.262 on 57 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ67b-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-all prices (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ67b-pulled-up-jumped-badly-now-easier-fences-all prices: IQ67b: pulled up jumped badly now easier fences all prices (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.