IQ73: has been passed and come back

Mechanism and rationale

In an earlier run in today's code it was first or second late on, lost a place, and took a place back. The strictest sign of a horse that fights: passed, and not beaten.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1

Reads: race_type, s_rally_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff finish",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (track_stiff_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "ten runners or fewer",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (field_size <= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "led or prominent last time",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_rally_n >= 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

7,061

A/E

0.94

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-9.8%

7,005 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back Discovery → PROMISING import: best [soft or heavy] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 1304 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (led or prominent last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (ten runners or fewer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (stiff finish): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

9. import result for IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. New idea IQ73-has-been-passed-and-come-back: IQ73: has been passed and come back (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.