IQ81: jumps thou shall not pass

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps: resisted a late challenge in two or more earlier runs in today's code and has never folded under one.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_resist_n >= 2 AND s_folded_n = 0

Reads: race_type, s_resist_n, s_folded_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_resist_n >= 2 AND s_folded_n = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,267

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.3%

2,261 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ81-jumps-thou-shall-not-pass Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 2267 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ81-jumps-thou-shall-not-pass (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ81-jumps-thou-shall-not-pass: IQ81: jumps thou shall not pass (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.