IQ93: game when challenged

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps: the looser reading. In an earlier jumps run it answered a challenge or went down fighting, and it has never folded.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0

Reads: race_type, t_game_n, t_fold_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "likely to be taken on today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0) AND (last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND n_front_last >= 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff finish",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0) AND (track_stiff_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_game_n >= 1 AND t_fold_n = 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,634

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-7.6%

1,631 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 18.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ93-game-when-challenged Discovery → PROMISING import: best [likely to be taken on today] NEGATIVE A/E 0.93 on 1068 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ93-game-when-challenged (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ93-game-when-challenged (stiff finish): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ93-game-when-challenged (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ93-game-when-challenged (likely to be taken on today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ93-game-when-challenged (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ93-game-when-challenged: IQ93: game when challenged (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.