Negative: Eye-catcher last time

Mechanism and rationale

Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.

The rule

(last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND (last_strong_finish = 1 OR last_travelled_well = 1 OR (last_trouble_in_running = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5))

Reads: last_position, last_strong_finish, last_travelled_well, last_trouble_in_running, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

negative

Live from

none

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

none

Source

none

System id

eye-catcher

Tier

contextual

Where

(last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND (last_strong_finish = 1 OR last_travelled_well = 1 OR (last_trouble_in_running = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5))

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note NEG-eye-catcher

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea NEG-eye-catcher: Negative: Eye-catcher last time (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.