Hypotheses · negative · NEG-failed-long-layoff-comeback

Negative: Failed comeback after a year off

LIVEPublished as a system, by a human.

published negative (live from the start)

Starts the thread “Negative: Failed comeback after a year off” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the published systems
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 0

Mechanism and rationale

Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.

The rule

last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs > 0 AND last_days_since_last_run >= 365

Reads: last_position, prior_runs, last_days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Backing: none
Kind: negative
Live from: none
Matched: none
Published: true
Rules: none
Source: none
System id: failed-long-layoff-comeback
Tier: confirmed
Where: last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs > 0 AND last_days_since_last_run >= 365

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

hypothesis note NEG-failed-long-layoff-comeback
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea NEG-failed-long-layoff-comeback: Negative: Failed comeback after a year off (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.