Negative: Hard front-end race on soft ground

Mechanism and rationale

Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.

The rule

last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1) AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: last_going_group, last_run_style, last_under_pressure, last_headed, last_weak_finish, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

negative

Live from

none

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

none

Source

none

System id

hard-race-soft-ground

Tier

confirmed

Where

last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1) AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note NEG-hard-race-soft-ground

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea NEG-hard-race-soft-ground: Negative: Hard front-end race on soft ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.