Hypotheses · shock · S4-chase-completed-large-positive
S4: chase completed large positive
holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.174 on 156 (GB 1.224, IRE 0.983), p 0.2181 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Starts the thread “S4: chase completed large positive” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 2
Mechanism and rationale
Shock test S4-chase-completed-large-positive (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
The rule
code = 'Chase' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5
Reads: code, finished, s
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- c91c5613f795c4014100fcc1be2975c044753070b25ad9a21bfceb5548bb9431
- Frozen
- 14 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/shock_tests
- Frozen on
2026-10-14
- Id
S4-chase-completed-large-positive
- Rule
code = 'Chase' AND finished = 1 AND s >= 1.5
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 107
- A/E
- 0.58
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -43.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -24.0%
- 106 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 156
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 1.17
- p = 0.22
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
- forward check refusederror
· 15 Oct, 23:21
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
Job 2109 gave up: OperationalError: no such column: code Traceback (most recent call last): File "/app/lab/src/gallops/orchestrator/loop
· engine:compute-1
compute-1 took job 2109 (forward_check, attempt 5)
· compute-1
Job 2109 will retry: OperationalError: no such column: code Traceback (most recent call last): File "/app/lab/src/gallops/orchestrator/loop
· engine:compute-1
compute-1 took job 2109 (forward_check, attempt 4)
· compute-1
Job 2109 will retry: OperationalError: no such column: code Traceback (most recent call last): File "/app/lab/src/gallops/orchestrator/loop
· engine:compute-1
compute-1 took job 2109 (forward_check, attempt 3)
· compute-1
Job 2109 will retry: OperationalError: no such column: code Traceback (most recent call last): File "/app/lab/src/gallops/orchestrator/loop
· engine:compute-1
compute-1 took job 2109 (forward_check, attempt 2)
· compute-1
Job 2109 will retry: OperationalError: no such column: code Traceback (most recent call last): File "/app/lab/src/gallops/orchestrator/loop
· engine:compute-1