Hypotheses · shock · S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper
S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper
holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.996 on 2207 (GB 1.033, IRE 0.849), p 0.534 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Starts the thread “S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 2
Mechanism and rationale
Shock test S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
The rule
code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s BETWEEN -0.75 AND 0.75 AND e <= -0.2555054705107118
Reads: code, finished, s, e
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- 3f71c7484dc32ee00cb400c4d7355a2af9a490ce2d1b674ff0832eb4f992aeee
- Frozen
- 14 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/shock_tests
- Frozen on
2026-10-14
- Id
S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper
- Rule
code = 'Hurdle' AND finished = 1 AND s BETWEEN -0.75 AND 0.75 AND e <= -0.2555054705107118
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,827
- A/E
- 0.95
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -28.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -11.4%
- 1,822 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 2,207
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 1.00
- p = 0.53
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.996 on 2207 (GB 1.033, IRE 0.849), p 0.534 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
· importer
S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (Britain): info
· importer
import result for S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
New idea S6-hurdle-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper: S6: hurdle completed normal habitual poor jumper (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.