System: First run in a nursery for strong nursery trainers

Mechanism and rationale

A two-year-old's first handicap, from a yard that places its juveniles well in them.

The rule

is_nursery = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 100 >= trainer_kind_runs * 15

Reads: is_nursery, prior_handicap_runs, trainer_kind_runs, trainer_kind_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

• The race is a nursery (a handicap for two-year-olds).
• It is the horse's first run in a handicap.
• Its trainer has won with at least 15% of 30 or more nursery runners before today.

Source

Profitable Betting Systems for Horseracing, ch. 8, using each trainer's record to date in place of a fixed list

System id

first-nursery-trainers

Tier

none

Where

is_nursery = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 100 >= trainer_kind_runs * 15

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-first-nursery-trainers

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-first-nursery-trainers: System: First run in a nursery for strong nursery trainers (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.