System: Jumping error in the remark that cost no ground (expected to disappoint)

Mechanism and rationale

A NEGATIVE flag, not a bet. A chaser beaten last time with a jumping error in its remark, yet in the better half of its field for ground gained at the fences. The remark gives it an excuse the figures do not support, and such horses won less often than their prices implied (0.90 on 862 runs in the year it was looked at). NOT PUBLISHED: followed forward to see whether the story is over-forgiven.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_ground_gained_pct >= 0.5

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_position, last_jumping_error, last_ground_gained_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

a04470ac8ce3b802862bb269dedafc780d4a2346f4398fb2dae7aa5d9d67dcbc

Frozen

15 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Backing

none

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-15

Matched

none

Published

false

Rules

• A chase today, and a completed chase last time in which it was beaten.
• The in-running remark for that run records a jumping error.
• It was in the better half of that field for lengths gained jumping.

Source

In-running remarks against measured jumping, October 2026

System id

jumping-error-that-cost-nothing

Tier

none

Where

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND last_ground_gained_pct >= 0.5

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

• forward check refusederror

  · 15 Oct, 23:21

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:51

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2114 finished

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS-jumping-error-that-cost-nothing (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2114 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:51 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:51 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 22 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS-jumping-error-that-cost-nothing (forward check refused): error

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 22 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS-jumping-error-that-cost-nothing Frozen → SHADOW import: followed forward from 2026-10-15, not shown on the site

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS-jumping-error-that-cost-nothing Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. New idea SYS-jumping-error-that-cost-nothing: System: Jumping error in the remark that cost no ground (expected to disappoint) (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.