Hypotheses · published · SYS-long-odds-on-favourites
System: Favourites shorter than 1/4
published system (live from 2026-10-13)
Starts the thread “System: Favourites shorter than 1/4” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the published systems
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 0
Mechanism and rationale
Very short prices win more often than the odds imply: the favourite-longshot bias.
The rule
is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal < 1.25
Reads: is_favourite, sp_decimal
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Backing
none
- Kind
system
- Live from
2026-10-13
- Matched
none
- Published
true
- Rules
- The favourite starts at shorter than 1/4.
- Source
Profitable Betting Systems for Horseracing, ch. 6
- System id
long-odds-on-favourites
- Tier
none
- Where
is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal < 1.25
Discovery result
Not measured yet.
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
hypothesis note SYS-long-odds-on-favourites
· importer
New idea SYS-long-odds-on-favourites: System: Favourites shorter than 1/4 (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.