Hypotheses · published · SYS-october-debutants-four-yards
System: October seasonal debutants from four fresh-and-ready yards
published system (live from 2026-10-13)
Starts the thread “System: October seasonal debutants from four fresh-and-ready yards” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the published systems
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 0
Mechanism and rationale
Jumpers back from a summer break, from stables whose horses come out ready to win first time. The four yards were picked as the best of 34, so treat the record with care.
The rule
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase', 'Bumper') AND region = 'GB' AND month = 10 AND days_since_last_run > 150 AND (trainer LIKE '%Olly Murphy%' OR trainer LIKE 'Alan King%' OR trainer LIKE '%Kim Bailey%' OR trainer LIKE '%Twiston-Davies%')Reads: race_type, region, month, days_since_last_run, trainer
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Backing
none
- Kind
system
- Live from
2026-10-13
- Matched
none
- Published
true
- Rules
- The race is over jumps in Britain, in October.
- The horse has not run for more than 150 days.
- It is trained by Olly Murphy, Alan King, Kim Bailey or the Twiston-Davies yard.
- Source
Dry-autumn analysis, October 2026
- System id
october-debutants-four-yards
- Tier
none
- Where
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase', 'Bumper') AND region = 'GB' AND month = 10 AND days_since_last_run > 150 AND (trainer LIKE '%Olly Murphy%' OR trainer LIKE 'Alan King%' OR trainer LIKE '%Kim Bailey%' OR trainer LIKE '%Twiston-Davies%')
Discovery result
Not measured yet.
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
hypothesis note SYS-october-debutants-four-yards
· importer
New idea SYS-october-debutants-four-yards: System: October seasonal debutants from four fresh-and-ready yards (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.