System: Two-year-old beaten favourites, favourite again

Mechanism and rationale

A juvenile beaten as favourite last time and trusted by the market again, same stable.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND age = 2 AND is_favourite = 1 AND last_was_favourite = 1 AND last_position <> 1 AND trainer_id = last_trainer_id

Reads: race_type, age, is_favourite, last_was_favourite, last_position, trainer_id, last_trainer_id

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

• The horse is a two-year-old running on the flat.
• It started favourite last time and was beaten.
• It starts favourite, or joint favourite, again today.
• It has not changed trainer since.

Source

Profitable Betting Systems for Horseracing, ch. 6

System id

two-year-old-beaten-favourites

Tier

none

Where

race_type = 'Flat' AND age = 2 AND is_favourite = 1 AND last_was_favourite = 1 AND last_position <> 1 AND trainer_id = last_trainer_id

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-two-year-old-beaten-favourites

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-two-year-old-beaten-favourites: System: Two-year-old beaten favourites, favourite again (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.