Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule

SYS1: pulled up poor jumper as a rule

KILLEDfailed the vaultFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.948 on 715 (GB 0.97, IRE 0.857), p 0.6981 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “SYS1: pulled up poor jumper as a rule” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

Live rule without the run style: parent + earlier Jump Index standing in the worse 40%.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, sp_decimal, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): bc27f3e13a790a9777f2f9fc4841f5498802b6939a69b582462113e72e5fd20f
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction: positive
Frozen in: research/experiments/raceiq/holdout_systems
Frozen on: 2026-10-14
Id: SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule
Rule: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 420
A/E: 1.20; winners vs the prices
SP return: -3.7%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +15.1%; 420 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.25

Strike rate 15.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 715; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.95; p = 0.70
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.948 on 715 (GB 0.97, IRE 0.857), p 0.6981 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea SYS1-pulled-up-poor-jumper-as-a-rule: SYS1: pulled up poor jumper as a rule (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.