SYS2: pulled up after jumping well

Mechanism and rationale

Live rule without the run style: parent + Jump Index in that run 0.57 or better against its field.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, sp_decimal, l_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

c063eaefe717f14a512c64ed8cd9d47f7e752189a1611e9b24a59fdaffa6fc00

Frozen

14 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction

positive

Frozen in

research/experiments/raceiq/holdout_systems

Frozen on

2026-10-14

Id

SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well

Rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND sp_decimal <= 15 AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.57

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

530

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+4.2%

530 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

1,024

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

1.15

p = 0.048

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2103 finished

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2103 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 11 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 11 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.148 on 1024 (GB 1.146, IRE 1.159), p 0.0476 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

12. import result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (discovery year (reference)): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

13. import result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (Ireland): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

14. import result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (Britain): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

15. import result for SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

16. New idea SYS2-pulled-up-after-jumping-well: SYS2: pulled up after jumping well (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer