SYS4: costly jumping figures half

Mechanism and rationale

Live rule without the remark: chase after a beaten chase, bottom quarter for ground gained jumping.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

433ccef7a694ccab45ecd963038d6059b21b9f3becb00126110f488484f9a2a8

Frozen

14 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction

positive

Frozen in

research/experiments/raceiq/holdout_systems

Frozen on

2026-10-14

Id

SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half

Rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,801

A/E

1.13

winners vs the prices

SP return

-12.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+13.5%

1,799 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

3,669

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

1.01

p = 0.45

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2105 finished

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2105 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 13 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 13 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.007 on 3669 (GB 1.032, IRE 0.865), p 0.4535 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

12. import result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (discovery year (reference)): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

13. import result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (Ireland): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

14. import result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (Britain): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

15. import result for SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

16. New idea SYS4-costly-jumping-figures-half: SYS4: costly jumping figures half (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Shadow.