TD3: durrell harry in race

Mechanism and rationale

Durrell on Dan with Harry on another Dan runner in the same race. Predicted below.

The rule

trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_id = v.race_id AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton')

Reads: trainer, race_type, jockey, exists, select, from, v, b, where

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell' AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM v b WHERE b.race_id = v.race_id AND b.jockey = 'Harry Skelton')

Kind

history

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

82

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

+29.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

28 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 3.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. TD3-durrell-harry-in-race Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.951 on 82 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for TD3-durrell-harry-in-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea TD3-durrell-harry-in-race: TD3: durrell harry in race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.