VET4: old down in trip

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, a chase after a chase, today 2f or more shorter. Predicted below the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_distance_yards IS NOT NULL AND distance_yards - last_distance_yards <= -440

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, last_distance_yards, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_distance_yards IS NOT NULL AND distance_yards - last_distance_yards <= -440

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

361

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

+9.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+58.7%

361 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. VET4-old-down-in-trip Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.058 on 361 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for VET4-old-down-in-trip (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea VET4-old-down-in-trip: VET4: old down in trip (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.