Hypotheses · old-engine · VET7-old-heavy-defeat-declined

VET7: old heavy defeat declined

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.486 on 85 bets

Starts the thread “VET7: old heavy defeat declined” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, beaten 15L+ in a chase, top speed and Jump Index both below its norm. Predicted level or below.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last < s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last < s_jump_index_rel_prev

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_top_speed_rel_prev, s_jump_index_rel_prev, s_top_speed_rel_last, s_jump_index_rel_last

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last < s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last < s_jump_index_rel_prev
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 85
A/E: 1.49; winners vs the prices
SP return: +70.0%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +136.7%; 85 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.54

Strike rate 11.8%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half512.00

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

VET7-old-heavy-defeat-declined Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.486 on 85 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for VET7-old-heavy-defeat-declined (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea VET7-old-heavy-defeat-declined: VET7: old heavy defeat declined (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.