Hypotheses · old-engine · VET8-younger-heavy-defeat-engine-intact

VET8: younger heavy defeat engine intact

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.298 on 219 bets

Starts the thread “VET8: younger heavy defeat engine intact” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, the same as VET6.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last >= s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last >= s_jump_index_rel_prev

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_top_speed_rel_prev, s_jump_index_rel_prev, s_top_speed_rel_last, s_jump_index_rel_last

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last >= s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last >= s_jump_index_rel_prev
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 219
A/E: 1.30; winners vs the prices
SP return: +11.6%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +47.7%; 217 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.35

Strike rate 13.7%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1371.24

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

VET8-younger-heavy-defeat-engine-intact Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.298 on 219 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for VET8-younger-heavy-defeat-engine-intact (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea VET8-younger-heavy-defeat-engine-intact: VET8: younger heavy defeat engine intact (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.