Threads · old-finish · FS1-old-strong-finish
FS1: old strong finish
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.9 on 349 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
FS1: old strong finish PROMISING negative
because Aged 10+, chase, last-time finishing speed in the top third of the field. Predicted above the market.
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct >= 0.67
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.90 on 349 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.65. info
Betfair SP return +14.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On FS1: old strong finish
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2520.98Later half970.65Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
FS1: old strong finish Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.9 on 349 bets
Where it started
Aged 10+, chase, last-time finishing speed in the top third of the field. Predicted above the market.