Hypotheses · old-finish · FS1-old-strong-finish

FS1: old strong finish

PROMISINGnegativePassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.9 on 349 bets

Starts the thread “FS1: old strong finish” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, chase, last-time finishing speed in the top third of the field. Predicted above the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct >= 0.67

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_fsp_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct >= 0.67
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 349
A/E: 0.90; winners vs the prices
SP return: -14.0%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +14.0%; 349 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 12.3%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2520.98

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

FS1-old-strong-finish Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.9 on 349 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for FS1-old-strong-finish (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea FS1-old-strong-finish: FS1: old strong finish (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.