H01: failed chaser back to hurdles

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H01: failed chaser back to hurdles KILLED red

   because A hurdle winner that did not take to fences goes back over hurdles: the chase runs hide what it can do.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_win_type = 'Hurdle' AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.97 on 2,439 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.87 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return -20.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H01: failed chaser back to hurdles

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226621.04

   2023 to a year ago1,2540.87

   Last year5231.11

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H01: failed chaser back to hurdles Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.971 on 2439 bets (broad RED)