H01: failed chaser back to hurdles

Mechanism and rationale

A hurdle winner that did not take to fences goes back over hurdles: the chase runs hide what it can do.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_win_type = 'Hurdle' AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_win_type, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_win_type = 'Hurdle' AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,439

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-33.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-20.9%

523 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H01-failed-chaser-back-to-hurdles Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.971 on 2439 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H01-failed-chaser-back-to-hurdles (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H01-failed-chaser-back-to-hurdles: H01: failed chaser back to hurdles (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.