H05: led and weakened down in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H05: led and weakened down in trip PROMISING negative

   because Led and emptied last time; today drops a furlong or more. The pace was there, the stamina was not.

   last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 1,178 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return +1.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H05: led and weakened down in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5201.00

   Later half6580.91

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.93 on 707 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return +1.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H05: led and weakened down in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2190.91

   Later half4880.94

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.98 on 468 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return +2.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H05: led and weakened down in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2991.05

   Later half1690.84

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.91 on 919 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -10.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H05: led and weakened down in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4000.93

   Later half5190.90

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H05: led and weakened down in trip Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.914 on 919 bets (broad RED)