H05: led and weakened down in trip

Mechanism and rationale

Led and emptied last time; today drops a furlong or more. The pace was there, the stamina was not.

The rule

last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220

Reads: last_run_style, last_weak_finish, distance_yards, last_distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 220) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

919

A/E

0.91

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-10.8%

913 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.914 on 919 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H05-led-and-weakened-down-in-trip: H05: led and weakened down in trip (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.