H06: one paced closer up in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H06: one paced closer up in trip KILLED red

   because Held up and stayed on at one pace last time; today steps up a furlong or more.

   last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND last_one_paced = 1 AND last_weak_finish = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 220

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 4,269 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -6.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H06: one paced closer up in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,8700.97

   Later half2,3991.04

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H06: one paced closer up in trip Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 4269 bets (broad RED)