Hypotheses · trip · H06-one-paced-closer-up-in-trip

H06: one paced closer up in trip

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 4269 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H06: one paced closer up in trip” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Held up and stayed on at one pace last time; today steps up a furlong or more.

The rule

last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND last_one_paced = 1 AND last_weak_finish = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 220

Reads: last_run_style, last_one_paced, last_weak_finish, distance_yards, last_distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND last_one_paced = 1 AND last_weak_finish = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 220
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 4,269
A/E: 1.01; winners vs the prices
SP return: -29.8%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -6.7%; 4,259 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 10.8%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1,8700.97

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H06-one-paced-closer-up-in-trip Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 4269 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H06-one-paced-closer-up-in-trip (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H06-one-paced-closer-up-in-trip: H06: one paced closer up in trip (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.