H102: failed to finish in a big field

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H102: failed to finish in a big field PROMISING amber

   because Failed to finish in a jumps field of 16 or more last time: big fields stop horses for reasons that are not theirs.

   last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.11 on 5,004 bets, by period 1.18 · 1.12 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -16.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H102: failed to finish in a big field

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,0251.18

   2023 to a year ago2,0751.12

   Last year9040.96

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   smaller field today (10 or fewer): A/E 1.02 on 1,559 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.04 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -24.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H102: failed to finish in a big field

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225541.04

   2023 to a year ago7061.04

   Last year299

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.09 on 2,025 bets, by period 1.16 · 1.08 · 1.00. info

   Betfair SP return -2.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H102: failed to finish in a big field

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227651.16

   2023 to a year ago8751.08

   Last year3851.00

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.18 on 3,341 bets, by period 1.28 · 1.19 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -0.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.28. Zone: all. On H102: failed to finish in a big field

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,3111.28

   2023 to a year ago1,3941.19

   Last year6360.96

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H102: failed to finish in a big field Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.177 on 3341 bets (broad AMBER)