H102: failed to finish in a big field

Mechanism and rationale

Failed to finish in a jumps field of 16 or more last time: big fields stop horses for reasons that are not theirs.

The rule

last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: last_position, prior_runs, last_field_size, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "smaller field today (10 or fewer)",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (field_size <= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_field_size >= 16 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,341

A/E

1.18

winners vs the prices

SP return

-12.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-0.6%

635 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.177 on 3341 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field (smaller field today (10 or fewer)): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H102-failed-to-finish-in-a-big-field: H102: failed to finish in a big field (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.