H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps KILLED red

   because Flat handicap, August onwards: a three-year-old with six or fewer runs. Still improving, and the weight-for-age scale helps.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month >= 8 AND prior_runs BETWEEN 2 AND 6

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 19,912 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.02 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +10.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2210,4981.02

   2023 to a year ago6,7881.02

   Last year2,626

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 19912 bets (broad RED)