Hypotheses · seasonal · H111-unexposed-three-year-old-in-autumn-handicaps
H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 19912 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Flat handicap, August onwards: a three-year-old with six or fewer runs. Still improving, and the weight-for-age scale helps.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month >= 8 AND prior_runs BETWEEN 2 AND 6
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, month, prior_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month >= 8 AND prior_runs BETWEEN 2 AND 6
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 19,912
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -15.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +10.2%
- 2,600 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H111-unexposed-three-year-old-in-autumn-handicaps Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 19912 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H111-unexposed-three-year-old-in-autumn-handicaps (broad): info
· importer
New idea H111-unexposed-three-year-old-in-autumn-handicaps: H111: unexposed three year old in autumn handicaps (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.