Threads · market · H112-outran-its-odds-last-time
H112: outran its odds last time
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 20965 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H112: outran its odds last time KILLED red
because Placed at 20/1 or bigger last time: the market did not see it coming and may still not believe it.
last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND last_position <= 3
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 20,965 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.02 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -4.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H112: outran its odds last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228,8430.962023 to a year ago8,8171.02Last year3,3050.99Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H112: outran its odds last time Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 20965 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Placed at 20/1 or bigger last time: the market did not see it coming and may still not believe it.