Hypotheses · market · H112-outran-its-odds-last-time
H112: outran its odds last time
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 20965 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H112: outran its odds last time” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Placed at 20/1 or bigger last time: the market did not see it coming and may still not believe it.
The rule
last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND last_position <= 3
Reads: last_sp_decimal, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND last_position <= 3
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 20,965
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -4.7%
- 3,291 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H112-outran-its-odds-last-time Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 20965 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H112-outran-its-odds-last-time (broad): info
· importer
New idea H112-outran-its-odds-last-time: H112: outran its odds last time (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.